A look at the major state ballot measures voters will decide in the midterms

Amna Nawaz:

Voters will also weigh in on more than 140 other ballot measures next month in 40 states.

Our Liz Landers has more on the issues on the ballot across the country.

Liz Landers:

From abortion to voter I.D. to debates over transgender rights, the measures on this year's ballots touch nearly every corner of the political debate. Republicans are counting on some of them to energize their base in a tough midterm environment.

For more on the issues heading before voters, I'm joined now by Reid Wilson, editor and founder of Pluribus News, a site that covers politics and policy at the state level.

Reid, thank you for joining us.

Reid Wilson, Founder, Pluribus News:

Thanks for having me.

Liz Landers:

The midterm cycle historically does not go well for the party in the White House. So why the state level are Republicans looking to these ballot measures now? And what does the enthusiasm gap look like?

Reid Wilson:

Well, Republicans hope that these ballot measures will gin up enthusiasm among voters who are not terribly excited to show up to vote. Democrats say that they're very excited to show up to vote this year. Fewer Republicans say that. So if Republicans stay home, that's bad for their party, obviously.

Now, these ballot measures are aimed at ginning up that turnout, just like ballot measures in 2004 that banned same-sex marriage were meant to get evangelical voters excited to vote for George W. Bush. Now, a lot of the academic research shows that didn't actually work. Bush's own campaign advisers say he won without those measures. So it's not terribly clear that the strategy is going to work.

Liz Landers:

As we reported, abortion is on the ballot in four states. Idaho, Nevada, and Virginia would protect abortion rights, while Missouri would roll back the protections that voters approved in 2024. Does abortion on the ballot help one party more than the other this year?

Reid Wilson:

I don't think so.

I think that abortion is an issue that we portray as polarizing, but I think the vast majority of Americans are in favor of abortion rights, based on the measures that have passed in just the last few years. I think voters really don't like it when rights are taken away from them, and so we have seen abortion protection measures pass in even some very red states like, as you mentioned, Missouri.

Liz Landers:

Six states have measures limiting voting to U.S. citizens and several others have voter I.D. measures. It's already a crime to vote in a federal election if you are not a U.S. citizen. Supporters call these election security measures, and critics call them redundant.

What are they actually going to change here?

Reid Wilson:

Well, they wouldn't change much of anything, because, in the six states where these measures are up, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia, there are no jurisdictions that allow noncitizens to vote.

There are a few jurisdictions in places like San Francisco, Oakland Washington, D.C., and some small towns in Maryland and Vermont, that allow noncitizens to vote in local elections, on school boards, city council races. But no noncitizen is allowed to vote in a federal election, and that's federal law.

These things would not change that. They would only stop local officials from allowing noncitizens to vote in local races, which, again, they can't in those states.

Liz Landers:

Right.

Four states will vote on restricting transgender girls from girls sports. Most of these are in Democratic-led states. Why is this going straight to voters, rather than the legislature?

Reid Wilson:

So there are two ways that ballot initiatives can make it to the ballot. One is citizens petitioning, signing a petition, getting something on the ballot that way. Another is when a legislature refers an issue to the ballot.

These are blue states where the legislature is not going to pass a ban on trans women in girls' sports. Instead, supporters of these measures have gone to the people, gotten the signatures, and gotten on the ballot. This is a pretty common thing. We see this in progressive states where conservatives use the ballot measure to get something on the ballot that the legislature won't pass.

And on the other hand we see it in conservative states where progressives get things like the minimum wage or abortion protection measures on the ballot when the legislature wouldn't pass them.

Liz Landers:

Beyond social issues, taxes are also on the ballot, including adding a billionaire's tax in California that is backed by progressives like Bernie Sanders, and there's an effort to repeal a tax in Washington on households that make more than $1 million each year.

What are the dynamics here?

Reid Wilson:

So, in California, this is a measure being pushed by SEIU, which is the one of the largest unions in the state. It would levy a 5 percent tax on billionaire assets. Interestingly enough, Governor Gavin Newsom is against this.

California relies so heavily on its capital gains tax that he worries that, if people with a billion dollars flee to another state, it could have real long-term impacts on the state's fiscal health. In Washington, on the other hand, Washington has never had an income tax at all.

And the notion of taxing incomes over a million dollars has been really controversial in a state that is used to not paying income taxes, even if very few people make more than a million dollars a year.

Liz Landers:

Reid Wilson, thank you so much for your expertise.

Reid Wilson:

Thank you.