GOP's big bet on Texas Latino voters could backfire in midterms

Geoff Bennett:

Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year, making a bet that Latino voters who broke for President Trump in 2024 could be the foundation for victory in 2026.

But, as Liz Landers reports, in South Texas, immigration crackdowns and rising everyday costs may be splintering the GOP's new coalition.

Mario Guerrero, South Texas Buildings Association:

Hi. Good morning.

Liz Landers:

We meet Mario Guerrero at the entrance to his weekend escape.

Mario Guerrero:

My dad was -- is a big hunter, and his dream was always to purchase a ranch.

Liz Landers:

A new family hunting lodge on the outskirts of Encino, Texas. Guerrero, who heads a regional builders association, says federal immigration policy is holding back local businesses like his that rely on immigrant labor.

Mario Guerrero:

The construction industry has been terrorized with these raids that are currently happening.

When you have fear and you can't get people to show up to job sites to do work, it affects the whole wheel of the economy when it comes to construction.

Liz Landers:

Do you think that this area of Texas will vote red this election cycle?

Mario Guerrero:

Right now, if you're a Republican candidate, at least in South Texas, a lot of the people that I speak to, which are business owners, if you have the stamp of a Republican on you, it doesn't look very good.

Liz Landers:

At the ballot box, Latinos account for almost a third of the eligible electorate and 45 percent of potential young voters in Texas. Trump's share of the Texas Latino vote grew each time he ran from about a third in 2016 to 55 percent in 2024.

Have you supported President Trump in the past?

Mario Guerrero:

Yes, ma'am.

Liz Landers:

How many times have you voted for him?

Mario Guerrero:

I voted for President Trump every time he was on the docket.

Liz Landers:

Last summer, Republicans counted on keeping their electoral gains with Hispanic voters like Guerrero as they redrew districts in an effort to win more seats in Washington. But a recent poll from The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision found just a third of Hispanic voters in the state approve of the job the president is doing.

Nearly two-thirds say they're less likely to back a candidate who supports his deportation policy.

Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX):

Well, good afternoon, Texas!

(Cheering)

Liz Landers:

Guerrero's Congresswoman, Republican Monica De La Cruz, touts the president's efforts to secure the border and backs Border Patrol, but on immigration enforcement:

Rep. Monica De La Cruz:

I have spoken with leadership. I believe that enforcement should be on the criminals and the cartels. I have said this over and over again.

Liz Landers:

That is not good enough for Guerrero. He is voting for her Democratic opponent, Bobby Pulido, this fall.

Mario Guerrero:

I vote Bobby. To his face, I'm going to keep track of what you're doing, and I'm going to keep track of how you're voting, because we're expecting for you to vote in the best interest of your people, and not in the best interest of your party.

Liz Landers:

Pulido is a Tejano music star who left the stage to run for office and began turning quinceaneras into campaign stops.

Bobby Pulido (D), Texas Congressional Candidate: We feel like we are inspiring a lot of people to go vote and be engaged that don't normally get engaged. So I really think people are more split-ticket voters and they want to believe in the candidate. I think they're disillusioned with both parties, to be honest with you.

Liz Landers:

Engagement is the concern for Daniel Garza. He leads The LIBRE Initiative, a conservative group that courts Latino voters. His fear, that Latinos might stay at home as races across the country are decided by fractions of a percent.

Daniel Garza, Executive Director, The LIBRE Initiative:

That right word shift that happened with the Latino community, don't take that for granted. We are almost transactional voters in a very real way. The Latino vote, leaning it one way or the other can actually define the outcomes of these races.

Liz Landers:

The Cook poll found Texas Hispanics ranked the economy as their top concern. That's what we heard at this homecoming football game in Floresville just outside San Antonio.

Can you afford day-to-day things right now?

Chezare Perez, Texas Voter:

Yes, with multiple jobs. So, I mean, that's the way a lot of Americans probably feel right now. We own a couple of businesses ourselves and have a full-time job, so it's very difficult. So, the affordability is really real right now.

Liz Landers:

Hispanic voters who spoke with us here had a favorable view of their incumbent congresswoman, Republican Monica De La Cruz.

Chezare Perez:

Have I supported her in the past? I have, yes.

Liz Landers:

But this year, they can't. State mapmakers drew them and 60 percent of her current constituents out of the district, forcing De La Cruz to introduce herself to new voters. Both she and Pulido argue that winning over Hispanic voters in South Texas only happens if you win the pocketbook issues.

Rep. Monica De La Cruz:

I know what a stack of bills looks like on the kitchen table.

Bobby Pulido:

I think a lot of people, especially in the Hispanic communities, we don't come from generational wealth. So we respond a lot to an economic message.

Liz Landers:

For his part, Guerrero sees the economy and immigration as intertwined. He voted for a secure border and safer communities. He didn't expect indiscriminate immigration raids and the resulting impacts on the social and business communities.

President Donald Trump:

I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out.

Liz Landers:

Even though Trump said on the campaign trail he wanted mass deportations, you're still surprised?

Mario Guerrero:

Yes, ma'am, very surprised. I think that the enforcement that has been placed by this administration has gone way above and beyond that we -- anybody ever expected.

Liz Landers:

It's a dynamic that could reverse recent Hispanic voting trends and reshuffle the odds of victory up and down the ballot.

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Liz Landers in Encino, Texas.