Iran war hurting U.S. allies in region, former Jordanian foreign minister says

Amna Nawaz:

For perspective on these latest developments in the war and the regional ramifications, we turn now to Marwan Muasher. He's the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's also the former deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Jordan, and he joins us now from Amman.

Marwan, welcome back to the show. Thanks for joining us.

Marwan Muasher, Former Jordanian Foreign Minister:

Thank you. Thank you for having me.

Amna Nawaz:

So, you are on the ground there in Jordan. That was attacked by Iran this weekend as that war restarted. Just tell us what it's like there on the ground. What's been the reaction to this latest turn of events?

Marwan Muasher:

Naturally, people are concerned. I mean, we are concerned about the continuation of the war. We are concerned about the hits that took place in Jordan.

We are also concerned about the economic disruption that this is happening. Frankly, most people today don't understand, what purpose is this war serving. Is it the downgrading of Iranian nuclear capability? The United States has already said that this has been done. Is it regime change? It has been made repeatedly clear that there will not be regime change through aerial bombardment.

So what is this war serving? Is it to open the Hormuz Straits? The straits were opened before the war. What this war is doing basically is an economic disruption to the region and the hardening of Iranian resolve, which is going to make it difficult to reach in the end a political settlement with Iran after the war.

Amna Nawaz:

In terms of how it's resonating on the ground and in the region, though, yes, I'm sure you saw there's been reporting today, the Wall Street Journal late today said the Iranian missiles that struck in Jordan struck housing for U.S. troops at an air base in Jordan. That's the attack that killed two U.S. soldiers.

So does the fact that it's U.S. troops and U.S. targets that seem to be targeted by Iran here, does that make a difference to people in Jordan or Jordanian leaders?

Marwan Muasher:

Well, no country would like its own sovereignty to be violated. No country would like to see hits on its own territory, and Jordanians are no different.

What we are seeing, though, is more precision in the hits that the Iranians are using. There is no question that they have -- their ability to hit targets they want with precision has been made a lot better than what it was before.

What Jordan is mainly concerned about is, one, the economic disruption that this is causing. Tourism is hurting very, very strongly, but also that it is becoming also clear that there is no military solution to this conflict.

The United States has made it very clear that it is good at military victories, but it's not so good at political settlements. The countries of the region in the end are going to have to deal with Iran, are going to have to come to a political settlement with Iran. Iran also is not making this easy by continuing hits, not just against Jordan, but against Gulf countries, against its own neighbors.

In the end, any political solution is going to be made even more difficult with these developments.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, as you now see, the deal that was signed last month has largely fallen apart because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is essentially stalled again.

And now we're seeing the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen threatening to cut off another major supply route. That's the Bab al-Mandab Strait. That's aiming to cut off the Saudi supply route to the Red Sea.

What are the implications there?

Marwan Muasher:

Well, huge for Jordan.

Jordan -- Jordan's only outlet to the sea is Aqaba in the Northern Red Sea. And a lot of exports as well as imports go through Bab al-Mandab. It is true that we have other routes through the Suez Canals, through land routes, but much of the trade that Jordan has with the world happens through the Bab al-Mandab.

Of course, we also are affected by the closure of the Hormuz Straits, particularly oil, that largely comes to Jordan, which is an oil-importing country, through the Hormuz Straits. So, the economic repercussions are really severe, because of the Hormuz Straits and, more importantly, if the Bab al-Mandab is closed.

Amna Nawaz:

As you have seen, sir, the Iranians are really using their leverage here with economic pressure, closing off those -- that Strait of Hormuz, affecting the global oil supply, hitting American allies in the region.

In your view, in the last minute or so we have here, what's the best U.S. leverage right now? What should their next step be?

Marwan Muasher:

I think the U.S. has very little options, frankly, Amna. The U.S. has not really studied this well.

The U.S. has thought that they could achieve a quick victory in Iran. That is clearly not the case. Iran is implying -- is applying a strategy of strategic defense. They are able to withstand all these hits, and that is going to make it very difficult for a political settlement.

But in the end, a political settlement is necessary, and the continuation of the war is only hurting the countries of the region, most of whom are U.S. allies.

Amna Nawaz:

All right, that is the former Foreign Minister of Jordan Marwan Muasher joining us tonight.

Good to see you. Thank you so much for your time.

Marwan Muasher:

Thank you.