Russia may force more men to fight in Ukraine as military faces heavy losses

Geoff Bennett:

Shifting our focus now to how Russia is supplying the soldiers to fight this war, this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time addressed rumors that the Kremlin is preparing for a full military mobilization to boost its manpower, calling them complete nonsense.

But Putin made much the same promise back in 2022 not to send conscripts to Ukraine before ordering a partial mobilization that remains in effect today.

Amna Nawaz:

Now, with Russian military losses estimated at some 40,000 a month, there are signs the Kremlin is preparing for the possibility of a much broader call-up, perhaps after parliamentary elections later this month.

Special correspondent Simon Ostrovsky reports from Georgia.

Simon Ostrovsky:

This is the state of Russia's new recruits being sent to the front lines in Ukraine. In social media videos from this past winter, men say they were tricked and drunk when signing their enlistment papers.

This man says he's injured and is barely able to lift his flak vest.

"Look at your special forces, Putin," he says.

Russia, it seems, is running out of men who are fit and willing to fight. Until now, Russia has mainly used financial incentives to get men to join the military, sometimes offering sums equivalent to a year's salary to get them to sign a contract. But with increasingly high casualty rates on the front lines due to Ukraine's newfound drone dominance, even those high numbers aren't the same draw they once were.

That's putting the Kremlin in a bind. Either halt the war now without achieving its declared goals, or find new ways to compel men into the army. One option would be to take the highly unpopular and potentially destabilizing step the Kremlin has avoided until now, instituting a draft, or a general mobilization, as it's known in Russia.

The word mobilizatsiya is all over the Russian airwaves.

Man (through interpreter):

The question isn't, will a mobilization be announced? The question is, what will it look like?

Simon Ostrovsky:

Scenes like this offer a clue. Men being pulled off the street by the authorities in legally questionable recruitment drives are becoming all too common and illustrate the Kremlin's desperate need for men for the front.

If the decision is made, the mobilization of men from the general population would only take place after parliamentary elections this month. That's according to Kirill Martynov, the editor in chief of Russia's leading independent newspaper operating in exile, whose groundbreaking reporting about the Russian war effort has resulted in the Kremlin banning the newsroom as a -- quote -- "undesirable organization."

Kirill Martynov, Editor in Chief, Novaya Gazeta Europe: The mobilization, I believe, is very likely in September or October of this year. This is a very dangerous moment both for Ukraine and for Europe. Russian army is losing more than 40,000 people every month for now.

So that means, if Putin wants to put -- to put more pressure on Ukraine, he basically needs more soldiers.

Simon Ostrovsky:

Over 4.5 years of war, Putin's escalating campaign of pressure on Ukraine has failed on a number of fronts.

Not only has he been unable to capture the capital, Kyiv. Putin hasn't even taken full control of three Ukrainian regions that already appear on Russian maps as part of Russia. On top of those failures, the cost of the war in Russian lives has been devastating. some 1.5 million men.

Seven months after launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, President Putin launched a partial mobilization with recruitment quotas assigned to local draft offices all across the country. It was Russia's first mass call-up since World War II.

It led to scenes like this along the country's land borders. Hundreds of thousands of men converged on crossings like this one to try to get out of the country to avoid the draft. More than 700,000 Russians arrived here in neighboring Georgia in just a matter of weeks.

Augustine (ph) was one of them and now lives full-time in the capital, Tbilisi, in order to avoid military conscription.

AUGUSTINE, Russian Draft Dodger:

Second wave of mobilization, I think, is definitely happening after election day, yes. Situation looks pretty bad for the Russian army, in my opinion. So, I know how it's working in Russia. They can take you with no reason. They will find a reason to bring you in the front. So I'm pretty scared, but I'm here. I feel safety here.

Simon Ostrovsky:

Alexey, who also left because of the war, thinks it's becoming much more difficult to avoid military service in Russia.

Do you feel like going back to Russia now, it's even more risky that you would get drafted into the military.

Alexey, Russian Draft Dodger:

I think, yes. They just can start picking people wherever they want. I really fear myself crossing the border.

Simon Ostrovsky:

You're afraid of crossing the border?

Alexey:

Yes, yes.

Simon Ostrovsky:

Recruitment statistics published by the independent Russian outlet Vyorstka show that, in the spring of this year, the number of new recruits from Moscow fell by a third, with the same trend seen across the rest of the country.

The publication also learned that many of those who did sign on were forced by police.

Kirill Martynov:

I strongly believe that basically the goal of this war for now is continuation of the personal power of President Putin. He has no clear way out. He needs to have more people on the battlefield.

Because we don't have tool to stop Putin politically, diplomatically, there is a kind of high risk that war will become even broader, it will affect Europe directly.

Simon Ostrovsky:

Last month, the Russian military tested how a mass mobilization would look in Kaliningrad, a Russian region situated between NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The idea, according to The Wall Street Journal's reporting, was to work out any glitches before a possible future mobilization.

Kirill Martynov:

And, for sure, I believe if Putin starts this forced campaign to bring people back to the battlefield, I think a lot of people try to find some way how they can escape.

During September, a lot of young men, they will prefer to spend a few weeks on vacation, maybe on the day of election, before the most risky time, to wait and see what will happen next.

Simon Ostrovsky:

But for fighting-age Russian men, the path ahead won't be easy. Since the first wave of mobilization, Russian authorities have upgraded a digital registry of all male citizens eligible for service, making dodging military conscription far more complicated now than it was at the start of the war.

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Simon Ostrovsky in Tbilisi, Georgia.