Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on GOP's midterm challenges

Geoff Bennett:

And now for some perspective on California Governor Gavin Newsom's apparent efforts to get a jump on 2028 and the unofficial kickoff to the midterms that starts today, we are joined by our Politics Monday duo.

That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

It's good to have you both here on this Labor Day.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Good to be here.

Geoff Bennett:

So, Amy, we will start with you. We watched on his interview with Gavin Newsom. He's in South Carolina, a state that, as you both know, played a pivotal role in the Democratic primary calendar last time around.

What did you hear in what he said?

Amy Walter:

I thought it was notable that he talked about his successes in being a foe to Donald Trump. Obviously, he was one of the only Democratic governors who was able to get a map passed that, let's face it, if Democrats do win control of the House next year, they can point to Gavin Newsom's success in passing that redistricting referendum in getting them there.

And he also talked about what he wants to do to sort of keep Donald Trump in check as we get into the next two years. I think the challenge for Newsom, and, quite frankly, it's for all of the Democratic candidates who want to run in 2028, is, what is the message of what life looks like beyond Donald Trump?

What is the positive, what is the forward-looking message?

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, what do you take away from the fact that Newsom is in South Carolina, of all places, at all?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Well, South Carolina picks presidents. Or certainly it did in the 2020 cycle. I mean, Governor Newsom is doing everything someone who is running for president would do.

He had a podcast. He explored more moderate views and took his message to FOX News and some broey podcasts. He really got his social media account, put it on steroids, and has been mocking President Trump's style through that social media account in a way that's gotten a lot of attention from Democratic voters.

South Carolina is going to matter. South Carolina is a state with a very large African American electorate, and that is a group of voters that any Democrat who wants a chance to be president of the United States needs to find a way to get those voters excited. So, of course he was there.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, here we are less than two months away from the midterms. Hard to believe. Where do Republicans stand?

Amy Walter:

Well, Republicans, no, they're in a defensive crouch right now. The president's approval rating right now sits at about 38 percent nationally. That's lower than he was at this point in 2018. It's about on par where George W. Bush was in 2006, which, by the way, I have been saying this for a while.

Others have also been making the comparison between what was going on in 2006 and what was going on now. In 2006, Democrats won both the House and the Senate. Democrats are trying to win both the House and the Senate. This time, Democrats won in some of the more rural parts of America. At that time, it was a deep frustration over the president's handling of war.

We obviously have an unpopular around war at this point. And, of course, frustration around issues like corruption. And that is something we're seeing in 2026.

I think the big question for these next few weeks is whether Republicans in these individual races are going to be able to change the focus from one that is on Donald Trump to one that is focused on the individual Democratic candidates. That is a tall -- taller order for some candidates than others.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, Republicans are doing something unusual this week. They're holding a national midterm convention in Dallas. You have been reporting on it. You will be there. What should we know?

Tamara Keith:

Yes, so this is something that Republicans have never done before. Midterm conventions are not a thing, just to be clear.

And the chairman of the Republican National Committee, Joe Gruters, has said repeatedly that this is going to be a Trumpapalooza. Not my word, his word. And the president will be headlining the convention both nights of the convention. It is only two nights.

I have gone through the list of announced speakers and found that fewer than half of the candidates in competitive races are actually speaking at this convention. Some share of them won't even be there. They won't be with -- they want as much distance from this as possible.

But the theory of the case as expressed by President Trump is that he thinks that his voters aren't going to turn out unless he's on the ballot, so they have to make it like he's on the ballot. And so, please, please, please vote as if Donald Trump is on the ballot is the message that he has had and that we expect him to continue to have.

Geoff Bennett:

Is there something to that? I mean, they're calling this Trumpapalooza. The president himself is telling Republican candidates to embrace him and his agenda. History shows that most presidents don't want the midterms to be a referendum on their presidencies.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Geoff Bennett:

Past presidents have always said it's not a referendum, it's a choice. This is a choice election.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Geoff Bennett:

What's the calculation behind making Donald Trump the center of it?

Amy Walter:

Well, his calculation is that his candidates win when he is on the ballot. When it is a choice election between Donald Trump and a Democrat, Republicans do really well.

The difference, of course, this year is that not only is Donald Trump not on the ballot, but there's no contrast with a Democratic candidate. He can't bounce this off of a Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris or Joe Biden. This is really about who's in charge in Washington.

It's why so many Democrats are eager to highlight the ways in which the Republican opponents are attached to decisions made by the president.

Geoff Bennett:

And the president's going to spend some real money from his campaign coffers in support of Republicans? I see you saying no.

Tamara Keith:

I don't see it.

Amy Walter:

It's the biggest parlor game in Washington right now.

Geoff Bennett:

So he may not spend the money?

Tamara Keith:

Well, we don't know how much he's going to spend. All we know for sure right now is that MAGA Inc., which is the super PAC that is connected to him, has dropped in the last few days $10 million on ads attacking James Talarico in Texas.

That is a state where Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, has had lackluster fund-raising, to say the least. He has not had a great campaign. And so this is this is a candidate President Trump endorsed. And so his super PAC had better spend some money trying to prop up a Republican who the president endorsed who a lot of people were warning may not be the best candidate.

We don't know yet how much they're going to spend.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

So, $10 million in Texas out of how much?

(Crosstalk)

Amy Walter:

Exactly.

Tamara Keith:

Out of 400.

Geoff Bennett:

Four hundred million dollars.

Tamara Keith:

And then there's another allied group that just started an ad campaign. It's only a million dollars. It's not the full enchilada.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Tamara Keith:

But it is two ads all about Donald Trump, no mention of candidates running in the midterms, a lot of slow-motion footage of Donald Trump.

Geoff Bennett:

More to come.

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter. Thank you both.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.