Trump says new talks are Iran's 'last chance' to make deal 'before decapitation'

Amna Nawaz:

Today, President Trump said his decision not to escalate the war in Iran over the weekend was Iran's -- quote -- "last chance" to make a deal. He said he called off large-scale strikes because countries in the Gulf asked him to do so.

This threatening of new strikes and then calling them off is something the president has done many times over the past few months.

Our Nick Schifrin has more.

Nick Schifrin:

Today on the Strait of Hormuz, it is deja vu. Once again, ships sit stranded. And, once again, the commander in chief cancels plans to escalate.

President Donald Trump:

We are talking right now. We're talking, and we're talking at the request of Iran.

Nick Schifrin:

Over the last few days, it's been another example of Iran whiplash.

Donald Trump:

Well, we're going big.

Nick Schifrin:

On Friday, the president and senior aides suggested escalation was imminent.

Donald Trump:

We're going to hit them very hard yesterday, very, very hard, harder than any attack, I think I can say, General, from a point of knowledge, any attack since World War II.

Nick Schifrin:

But he now says that Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and other regional leaders changed his mind, at least for now.

Donald Trump:

This is a last chance. This is not something that, if it doesn't happen -- this is a last chance for them to sign a good document.

Nick Schifrin:

U.S. and regional officials tell "PBS News Hour" there are talks between the U.S. and Iran and Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran reiterated today it would never reopen the strait.

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through interpreter):

As long as the current U.S. evil acts continue, as long as the naval blockade of Iran remains in place, there will naturally be no significant development or major change in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nick Schifrin:

This is not the first time the president has claimed diplomatic progress that Iran has denied, nor the first time he's threatened to escalate and backed off.

In April:

Donald Trump:

Every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12:00 tomorrow night.

Nick Schifrin:

And then two days later.

Pete Hegseth, U.S. Defense Secretary:

Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.

Nick Schifrin:

Across one week in May.

Donald Trump:

We're either going to make a deal or they're going to be decimated. There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out.

Nick Schifrin:

And 24 hours in June.

Donald Trump:

We're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard. We found them to be rational, and they're going to make a deal.

Nick Schifrin:

And so this question today:

Question:

Mr. President, this is at least the fifth time you have turned off airstrikes against Iran since April to negotiate. What is your message to the American people?

Donald Trump:

I want to give them every last chance before decapitation. Very tough to do what we have planned, still planned. We will see what happens.

Nick Schifrin:

The U.S. military is still poised to escalate. And it's still implementing a blockade of Iranian ports, what the president now calls the United States wall of steel.

Man:

If you do not comply, we will compliance with force.

Nick Schifrin:

This weekend, Central Command redirected dozens of commercial ships, disabled two and boarded two others, as the president today predicted quick success.

Donald Trump:

It's not very complex. We're talking about the strait, the opening of the strait, having it open literally by tomorrow.

Nick Schifrin:

And as the U.S. attention remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S.' Gulf allies increasingly find themselves caught between preventing a wider war and protecting their own economic futures.

Joining us now is Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum.

Thanks very much. Welcome to the "News Hour."

Dania Thafer, Executive Director, Gulf International Forum:

Thank you, Nick, for having me.

Nick Schifrin:

We just watched this presidential call it back-and-forth half-a-dozen times nearly over the last few months, threatening escalation and then backing off.

How has it affected how the region sees the president and sees the United States?

Dania Thafer:

Well, that is a great question.

Certainly, from the perspective of the region, they saw that their -- especially the Gulf states, notably, they saw that their security concerns were secondary and they lobbied very heavily against this war. And so it does put them in a very awkward situation with their most important partner and ally, the U.S., and also with a regional belligerent Iran.

So the Gulf states have obviously had difficult relations with Iran, historically speaking, but they were well aware of what the consequences of this war was and that it would be a strategic blunder. And so this is the reason why they lobbied against it. There's a lot of questions circulating about I wouldn't say the future of U.S.-Gulf relations, because the Gulf states' grand strategies will generally stay with the U.S.

But, of course, they're looking at an international, layered approach for defense procurement, so a diversification or sort of hedging, if you will.

Nick Schifrin:

Hedging, a little hedging, yes.

You mentioned how these Gulf states, the U.S.' Gulf allies were worried about this war going in. They have been worried about it throughout, and specifically Saudi officials tell me that the Saudi government, the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has been very worried about escalation.

He called the president over the weekend. Saudi officials believe that call convinced the president to back off. The president basically said as much. Why for Saudi Arabia, why for some of the other countries have they been so worried about this particular escalation right now?

Dania Thafer:

Well, we are going into a dangerous phase. Iran has sent warning shots to the Gulf states and to Saudi Arabia specifically, maybe not directly. They have a degree of plausible deniabilities because it came through the Houthis, through...

Nick Schifrin:

The Iranian-backed group in Yemen.

Dania Thafer:

Yes, through the Houthis, who are an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, and also from Iraq. Saudi Arabia was attacked. And more noteworthy is also ports near the Suez Canal, which is the other outlet, area in which boats can go through, because there's two choke points in the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab.

So basically, the Iranians are sending the message that they will lock them into the Strait of Hormuz.

Nick Schifrin:

And we have got this map right here, the three choke points that you referred to, the Strait of Hormuz, of course, but in addition, the Bab al-Mandab strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, that's what the Houthis are threatening, and now we have this explosion outside the Suez Canal.

What does that triangle, if you will, of maritime choke points, what does that -- what power does that give Iran and its allies?

Dania Thafer:

Well, the Saudi ports were the lungs for the Gulf states in this war. So this is how they were able to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, not only for Saudi Arabia to sell oil, which is incredibly important to the international economy, and is critical for Saudi's economy, but also, talking about supply chains, this is the only one of the core areas in which the Gulf states are all receiving their supply chains.

So cutting off Saudi Arabia would also be very costly for the GCC states as well. And this is why Saudi Arabia has been establishing a Red Sea coalition to try to address this with other Gulf states, not all of them, and also with Turkey, with Pakistan, and other coastal states along the Red Sea to try to address this.

But over -- the overarching issue is that Saudi Arabia wants de-escalation, and the point to Trump is that this is going to be too costly without any strategic returns.

Nick Schifrin:

And we only got about 45 seconds left, so it's a hard question to answer in that time. But, at this point, does Iran believe that, whether it's those choke points or what we saw with the president, going back and forth, that it has leverage?

Dania Thafer:

Yes, I think the Iranians think they are winning this war. And they think they have the leverage and the influence to push-pull and push their will on the Trump administration, the international community, and in fact thinks they can reestablish the regional order in their favor.

Nick Schifrin:

Dania Thafer, the executive director of the Gulf International Forum, thank you very much.

Dania Thafer:

Thank you for having me, Nick.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.