U.S. launches new strikes on Iran after attacks on tankers in Strait of Hormuz

Amna Nawaz:

Welcome to the "News Hour."

The U.S. military has once again launched a series of attacks against Iran. The strikes, they say, are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, an act the U.S. calls a -- quote -- "clear violation of the cease-fire."

Geoff Bennett:

The Trump administration also today revoked a key sanctions waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil.

Joining us now to discuss the latest developments and what they could mean for the global oil supply is maritime security expert Ian Ralby.

Thanks again for being with us. We appreciate it.

Ian Ralby, President, Auxilium Worldwide:

Pleased to be back.

Geoff Bennett:

A U.S. official tells our Nick Schifrin that these latest strikes are aimed at punishing the regime. "They have clearly demonstrated they're not listening," this official tells Nick. "We are turning up the volume."

Based on what we know so far, what's your read on what's happening in and around the Strait of Hormuz?

Ian Ralby:

Things are turbulent.

The last 24 hours have been particularly dicey. We have seen three vessels hit, two confirmed, one an LNG tanker out of Qatar that caught fire and could still explode. Things are about as messy as they have been in the last couple of weeks. And with these renewed strikes, I think the maritime traffic is largely turning back.

(AUDIO GAP) strikes, it is likely to become even more stuck in, in order to avoid becoming part of the ongoing hostilities. So it's a grim picture at the moment.

Geoff Bennett:

Has Iran claimed responsibility for these strikes that the U.S. says that they're responsible for? And if not, what might that suggest?

Ian Ralby:

Yes, it's a great question. And many have accused Iran of it. It does look like IRGC action, and Iran has made a statement, at least about the Qatari vessel, that there was warnings given and that they were not accepted.But they haven't gone so far as to claim full responsibility.

And the second vessel has been confirmed that a Saudi ultra-large crew carrier, so as big as it gets -- and so it's quite interesting that we see the two vessels that have been confirmed both from the Gulf, and neither of them has Iran confirmed as being the responsible party.

So it may underscore a degree to which Iran is looking to create some vagary around what they're doing, partly because they don't want to be seen as aggressing against some of their neighbors.

Geoff Bennett:

What has shipping traffic through the strait looked like since the cease-fire started?

Ian Ralby:

So we have had a couple different cease-fires. So we had the traffic running through at about 130 to 160 vessels before the start of the war.

After the April 8 cease-fire, it still remained pretty much nil. We saw a couple going through every day, at most about 10. Since the MOU was put in place that is basically a framework for a cease-fire, but not formally one because it doesn't have some of the specifics we'd hope for a situation like this, like what are the results, what are the consequences of breaking it,we have seen an upward tick, so about 30 to 40 vessels.

And over the weekend, we saw a total of about 78 vessels in either direction. So it's a much bigger amount in total, but still 78 vessels in two days compared to 260 is a far cry from where we used to be.

Geoff Bennett:

Indeed. And at what point -- at this point, rather, what options do shipping companies have? Can vessels continue operating safely through the strait? I mean, are insurers, are ship owners or governments now rethinking how this traffic moves through there?

Ian Ralby:

Absolutely. It's extremely volatile. The criticality of it has gone up.

And so we had essentially at one point three different routes, the Iranian route through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, where you get permission from Iran and hug the Iranian coast, and then two in what the president has called the southern highway, which has been either facilitated by the U.S. Navy through what's called the NCAGS program that provides U.S. guidance through for a very brief window, an IMO, International Maritime Organization, an Oman scheme that also went through that same route.

It seems like all three of those are likely to be closed for the moment. But when they return, there's going to be a reticence. And what seems to be occurring is that ships are starting to actually assess that the Red Sea, with pirate attacks on the rise and still a looming threat of Houthis, is still safer than traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

And so that is a real concern because we may see this move more in a southerly direction into the Red Sea and resume other threats and other concerns as being as high-profile as they had been maybe a year or two ago.

Geoff Bennett:

Ian Ralby, thank you for your insights. We appreciate it.