What a Ramadi victory means for the fight against ISIS

GWEN IFILL:

One of the biggest stories of 2015 has been the Islamic State group's increasing grip on parts of Iraq and Syria. For months, the Iraqi military has been preparing to take back the vital city of Ramadi, capital of Anbar province.

And, today, that push may be paying off.

The crack of gunfire and boom of mortar rounds punctuated the day's fighting across Ramadi. Thick plumes of smoke dotted the skyline, as tanks and other vehicles rolled through the streets below. State television quoted the army chief as saying his forces will finish retaking the city center in the coming days.

It's a striking turnabout from May, when Islamic State forces seized Ramadi. The city is located about 60 miles west of Baghdad, and its loss was a blow to the Iraqi government and army. That's because Ramadi is also the provincial capital of Anbar province, deep in the Sunni Arab heartland.

For months, Iraqi troops have slowly fought their way back, surrounding the city and cutting off ISIS supply lines. They have been backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, but have not relied on Shiite militias. The Shiites were accused of abusing Sunni civilians when Tikrit was recaptured from Islamic State fighters back in April.

At one point, the militants controlled a large swathe of Iraq. Even if Ramadi does fall, they will still have strongholds in two major cities, nearby Fallujah, as well as Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, in the north.

Iraqi military officials say once Ramadi is fully secured, it will be handed over to Anbar police and local Sunni tribes.

For more on what the battle for Ramadi means, I'm joined by Ayman Oghanna, a multimedia journalist with VICE News who has recently been embedded with Iraqi special forces near Ramadi, and retired Army colonel Peter Mansoor, a top aide to General David Petraeus during the U.S. surge in Iraq.

Ayman Oghanna, since you have been with the troops most recently, tell us what kind of progress is being made and how you measure that progress.

AYMAN OGHANNA, VICE News:

Well, before this trip, I was last in Ramadi in May, just before the city was taken.

And it's really night and day in terms of the spirit and morale amongst the men. I mean, they really are moving forward and they seem very confident that they should have full control of the city pretty soon.

GWEN IFILL:

So, when — they're doing that how, exactly?

AYMAN OGHANNA:

Basically, the U.S., according to the men on the ground, they said that they noticed a massive increase in the U.S.-led coalition's use of air support and airstrikes. They said they have seen a dramatic increase, which they accounted to Russia's intervention in Syria led to a — sort of the U.S.-led coalition stepping up their game in terms of airpower there.

And they have basically said, before, we had a problem with getting everything we wanted to be hit by coalition aircraft, and now everything — the coordinates they're giving, everything seems to be getting hit. And then these targets get hit and the special forces move forward and take the ground.

GWEN IFILL:

Peter Mansoor, how important is it, how critical is it for the Iraqi government or the Iraqi effort to regain Ramadi? What is it about Ramadi that makes that important?

COL. PETER MANSOOR (RET.), U.S. Army: Well, Ramadi is the provincial capital of al-Anbar province, a province composed of 99 percent Sunni Muslims, and it's extremely important.

It's the iconic home, birthplace of the awakening movement which did so much to destroy al-Qaida in Iraq, the forerunner to ISIS. So it has both great symbolic meaning and great practical and political meaning as well.

GWEN IFILL:

Ayman Oghanna just mentioned the help of the U.S. airstrikes, air support has allowed this progress to be made, but what about the Shia paramilitary which has been available to them? Is it because it is such a Sunni stronghold that that has not been possible?

COL. PETER MANSOOR:

Well, absolutely.

I think the government of Haider al-Abadi, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, understands they cannot unleash the Shiite militias in a Sunni stronghold in al-Anbar province. It would lead to probably lots of civilian casualties, which would then be blamed on sectarianism and create more problems than it would solve.

This needs to be a victory for the Iraqi army supported by U.S. advisers and airpower and then it needs to be turned over to Sunni police and the Sunni tribes.

GWEN IFILL:

Ayman Oghanna, the president said this week, last week that there has been — that ISIS has lost ground in Iraq, 40 percent he said. Others say 20 percent. What does that look like on the ground?

AYMAN OGHANNA:

Yes, it's clear that ISIS has lost a lot of territory this year, in terms of them being a sort of conventional military group holding ground.

But the real questions will linger afterwards. I mean, even when Ramadi — I'm sure it will — fall to the Iraqi forces pretty soon, it's still going to be a very difficult place for the Iraqis to hold and maintain. I mean, even Saddam Hussein had trouble ruling over Anbar province and its capital, Ramadi, and the state has always had a difficult time controlling this area.

Once ISIS goes, there will still be a lot of elements who will support them and be opposed to the government. And it might not look like waving a black flag and having the sort of caliphate or state, but there will be a sort of probable insurgency against the forces that move in to hold the ground.

GWEN IFILL:

Peter Mansoor, we have heard over and over again over the years about the difficulty in getting the Iraqi army up to snuff. Does this mean that they now are?

COL. PETER MANSOOR:

Well, they're at least good enough to take a large city or a semi-large city when supported by lots of airpower and against resistance that, although fierce, you know, we're only talking several hundred troops.

It would be a far different battle if they were to try to take over Mosul at this point, for instance. But it does show progress. And I think it's a good sign. I think the more important thing, going to what the other commentator is talking about, is the politics of the situation have got to be conducive to holding the area once it's secured.

And there has got to be some sort of political arrangement with the local Sunnis that give them some sort of autonomy, much like the Kurdish region enjoys, and then they could support a political way forward, rather than continuing to fight the government.

GWEN IFILL:

How does that happen, Ayman Oghanna? How do they hold the ground that They have taken?

AYMAN OGHANNA:

Yes, it's not easy.

I mean, the group that is leading this operation right now in Ramadi, the Iraq special forces, seem to be very capable in taking ground, but the Iraqi army doesn't have a very strong record and history in holding ground, particularly in sensitive Sunni areas like Anbar. And as Colonel Mansoor said, I think the real — ISIS didn't come out of nowhere.

It came out of the perceived and very real marginalization of Sunnis in Iraq. And so two things need to happen. Militarily, there has to be a local trusted force. And Baghdad is doing that. They are planning to use local Anbari Sunni volunteers sort of similar to the awakening that preceded them, but not quite to the same level. And there also needs to be an effort to politically include Sunnis in the Iraqi democratic system. And that is not going to be easy. It's going to take real leadership.

GWEN IFILL:

And, Peter Mansoor, briefly, do you think that this sort of success can spread to places like Mosul and Fallujah?

COL. PETER MANSOOR:

Well, I think it could spread to Fallujah next. Mosul would be a different order of magnitude altogether, given the size of the city and the number of combatants up there. But it's a good start.

GWEN IFILL:

Peter Mansoor, Ayman Oghanna, thank you both very much.