What may happen as oil supplies dwindle and Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed

Geoff Bennett:

As U.S.-Iran talks show little sign of progress, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced, raising concerns about global energy markets and supply chains.

For more on what a prolonged disruption might mean, we're joined now by Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and one of the world's leading energy analysts.

Thanks for being here.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global:

Thank you.

Geoff Bennett:

You have said that markets have absorbed this shock better than many expected. What's the biggest reason why?

Daniel Yergin:

Well, basically the biggest reason why is inventories, inventories in the United States. Remember, now, the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer. And so we have that.

And the other surprise has been China, which also has built up huge inventories. And I think those are the reasons that this shock has not been as extreme for the world as might have been expected on March 4, when Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Geoff Bennett:

When those inventories deplete, how quickly could we see prices spike even higher?

Daniel Yergin:

Well, right now, I'd say the view is that, as we get into July, if there's not some relief, is when you will start to see the prices reverse from where they are.

I should say it's -- in Asia, it's an energy crisis now. I mean, they're really feeling it because they were so dependent on the supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. So they're having rationing shortages. They don't have fertilizer. They don't have diesel for farming.

In the United States, we're seeing it at the gasoline pump. And in Europe, it's actually about jet fuel right now.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, that's right. I mean, the consequences extend far beyond oil. What's the most overlooked impact of this disruption? What are the other knock-on effects that we're not yet fully grasping?

Daniel Yergin:

I think the number one is fertilizer because the Gulf was a source of one third of the world's traded fertilizer. And this has hit during plant season in many parts of the world. It's either driven up prices or it simply isn't there. So I would put that as number one.

Geoff Bennett:

And here in the U.S., how close are we to a 1970s-style energy crisis?

Daniel Yergin:

I don't think we're that close to it, because we are the world's largest producer and so forth. And I think lessons have been learned that part of the problems of the energy crisis in the 1970s were self-inflicted by government policies that actually created shortages where there weren't necessarily shortages.

Geoff Bennett:

Lessons learned. I mean, has the fact that America is now this major energy producer, as you point out, has that fundamentally changed the country's vulnerability to global conflicts?

Daniel Yergin:

I think it's not changed it, because, at the end of the day, it's one global oil market, but it's given us insulation and it's made the United States such a dominant player that we were not before. So that's such a dramatic change from previous crises.

Geoff Bennett:

As we've covered on this program, a swift reopening of the strait does not necessarily mean a swift return to normal.

At day 100, how much longer do you estimate recovery would take if the strait reopened tomorrow?

Daniel Yergin:

Well, I think you use the right word. It's not going to be a swift recovery. We estimate at S&P that it would take as much as six months to get back to 80 percent of where we were before. You got to get tankers out of the gulf. You got to get new tankers in.

And we think a lot of extensive damage, and you have to begin production again. So it isn't like you threw a light switch and we're back to normal.

Geoff Bennett:

What are you watching for as this progresses?

Daniel Yergin:

I'm watching what happens with inventories is I think the number one thing. And, obviously, what is the state of the negotiation? Is there a deal or not a deal? And it keeps coming into focus and then going out again.

And Iran is really determined, I think, not to give up control of the strait. They want to turn what was an open, free navigation international waterway into an Iranian canal. And that's not acceptable to the Arab producers and it's certainly not acceptable for the world economy.

Geoff Bennett:

You mentioned that the lessons were learned after the 1970s with failed government policy. When you look at a state like California that has gas prices right now on average of $6 and up, you could argue that California's interventions have put it in a worse position than other states.

Is that a preview of what heavy-handed policy responses could look like globally?

Daniel Yergin:

Well, I think you said it very clearly, exactly, because they put such pressure on their refining system. They've forced down production in the state.

And so what are they doing? They're importing gasoline from Korea that's made out of oil from the Middle East. And they've created their own form of dependence. So California, of all the parts of the country, is a part of the country that is actually most integrated into the global oil market.

Geoff Bennett:

Daniel Yergin, always learn so much when you're here. Thanks, as always.

Daniel Yergin:

Thank you.