What's making the Texas Senate race so competitive

Geoff Bennett:

Texas has been reliably Republican for three decades, despite repeated Democratic hopes that shifting demographics might change its politics. But, this year, Republican divisions, political scandals, rising prices, and local fights over big tech are giving Democrats new hope of an upset in the U.S. Senate race there.

Our Liz Landers was in Texas earlier this week and has this report.

Liz Landers:

In deep red rural Texas, Cheryl Shadden and her dogs round up the horses. She's a lifelong Republican and has lived in Hood County for decades, but over the last few years, a new neighbor has dramatically changed her life and her political allegiances.

Cheryl Shadden, Texas Voter:

It's become unbearable living here.

Liz Landers:

Across the street, a new data center. She says it's constant noise is costing her sleep, her health, and her property value.

Cheryl Shadden:

I wake up in the morning and my ears buzz and ring. I have lost hearing because of this. I have got permanent conductive hearing loss. We have health problems. We don't sleep.

Liz Landers:

Uproar over data centers has become a national flash point, with Republicans and Democrats still figuring out how to handle the issue.

Cheryl Shadden:

Typically, what it sounds like is Niagara Falls.

Liz Landers:

It's having a direct impact now on Shadden's vote in the high-profile race for U.S. Senate, leading her to break from her party.

Ken Paxton (R), Texas Senatorial Candidate: I think it's a good idea to slow this down so that we can listen to our to our constituents.

Liz Landers:

In late August, U.S. Senate candidate and current state Attorney General Ken Paxton called for repealing a tax break that spurred data center growth in Texas. Shadden says that's not good enough.

Cheryl Shadden:

Where have you been the last three years? Not here with us. So, in our mind, unless you do something meaningful before November, you won't get our vote.

Liz Landers:

Data centers aren't Republicans' only electoral problem. Gas prices are higher than usual. Diesel is off the charts, driven by a foreign war extending into its seventh month and opposed by many conservatives.

And then there's Paxton himself.

Cheryl Shadden:

He's seeming kind of dirty right now, like a career politician that could possibly be a used car salesman.

Announcer:

Ken Paxton.

Liz Landers:

His bruising primary win over incumbent Senator John Cornyn split the party. Trump backed Paxton, while Cornyn warned Paxton's history of scandal could put the safe seat at risk. He spent nearly nine years under indictment for securities fraud before a deal got the charges dropped.

The Texas House impeached him in 2023, mostly over abuse of power allegations. The state Senate acquitted him. And last year, his wife filed for divorce, citing adultery. Paxton denies wrongdoing.

Mr. Paxton, Liz Landers with "PBS News Hour."

Paxton didn't take our questions, but did speak with FOX News' Bret Baier.

Ken Paxton:

Well, look, Bret, when you're fighting, they come after you. Look at Donald Trump. He had many more indictments than I did. He had two impeachments. I went through a very similar process as him. When you go after things that protect the people of your state, they come after you, and none of those things were proven.

Liz Landers:

Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas in more than 30 years, but this year they see an opening thanks to the local, state, and national political landscapes, as well as a strong candidate.

State Rep. James Talarico (D-TX), Senatorial Candidate: In red areas and blue areas alike, everyone is struggling.

Liz Landers:

Democrat James Talarico is a state representative and seminarian, running as a moderate, guided by his Christian faith.

State Rep. James Talarico:

We are building a movement to take back our state and take back our country.

(Cheering)

State Rep. James Talarico:

We are uniting Texans onto one team to take on this broken, corrupt political system.

Liz Landers:

He's focused on issues like raising the federal minimum wage to $15, raising taxes on billionaires, and passing comprehensive immigration reform. And Talarico wants to give local officials approval power over new data centers.

While Republicans met for a midterm convention in Dallas, his campaign rolled out 21 current and former Republican officials backing him.

State Rep. James Talarico:

God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is nonbinary.

Liz Landers:

But his critics have forced him to walk back past controversial comments on social issues.

Question:

God is nonbinary. Do you still stand by that?

State Rep. James Talarico:

I was being provocative with that statement. I get that. What I was trying to say is that you can't use human categories to define God. And that's not controversial theologically.

Liz Landers:

The president's backing proved instrumental in Paxton's primary. Trump used the convention spotlight to argue he can be again this November, even with his approval rating underwater.

President Donald Trump:

I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot.

Liz Landers:

Trump's just begun fulfilling his promise to financially float Paxton's campaign, his super PAC, MAGA Inc., buying $10 million worth of ads on Paxton's behalf.

Narrator:

Paxton's plan? Doubling the child tax credit, big write-offs for medical expenses, and a $50,000 deduction for first-time homebuyers.

Liz Landers:

That prompted additional cash and ads from other Republican groups, effectively erasing Talarico's sizable cash advantage.

Back at the convention, suburban Dallas Republicans told us they will back their nominee. Not all of them are sure he can win.

Frank Holomshek, Texas Voter:

Not sure Paxton's the right guy, but he's the right guy this time.

Chris Daniel, Texas Voter:

What I say to a Republican who's either thinking of not voting or voting for Talarico is, the alternative is worse. For all the things that you don't like about Ken Paxton, and there can be many, and -- it will be far worse.

Liz Landers:

Cheryl Shadden expects a lot of Republicans to skip the Senate race, rather than back a Democrat they see as too far left.

Cheryl Shadden:

As far as Paxton goes, I will most likely not vote for Paxton. A lot of Republicans are just not going to vote for that slot because they feel like Talarico is too far left. In my mind, how I look at it is, we have seen what has happened to my community for the last three years. So why would we vote for these same people again?

Liz Landers:

How many Texas Republicans stay home, skip the race, or cross over will likely decide whether their party's 30-year streak survives?

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Liz Landers in Granbury, Texas.