Where key Senate races stand in the final days of campaigning

Geoff Bennett:

The fight for control of the U.S. Senate is coming down to a hard-to-predict finish, where Democrats see a possible path to reclaiming the chamber in a year where that seemed like a long shot.

Our Lisa Desjardins joins us now from the super screen to break down the map, the key contests, and what it will take for either party to win.

All right, Lisa, so where does the race for the U.S. Senate stand?

Lisa Desjardins:

It is unpredictable and it is also incredibly dramatic. Let's jump right in with Cook Political Report's view of things to help us out.

First of all, Democrats, right now, they are defending four vulnerable competitive seats. However, for Cook, three of these, you see them in the dark blue, they don't think are likely to go to Republicans. There is, however, a toss-up seat for Democrats, Michigan. That's number one on their watch list.

How about Republicans? Look at this. Their job is much harder. You can see they're defending far more places, and far more of them are that light color. That means that they are toss-ups or a state that is about to lean potentially for Democrats. Now, in order to take over the Senate, the magic number, I want everyone to remember this, is four. Democrats need a net gain of four seats here.

To do that, you can read the map as well as I,they have got to win in some of these deep red states, but they are competing there. I want to give everyone a sense of how extraordinary this is by looking at the 2024 presidential results of some of these states where Democrats are competing this year.

Ohio, where there's a toss-up race, look at that. Trump won by 11 points. Let's go not far away over to Iowa, also a state that is in competition this year. Trump won that state by 13 points. And go just down the way to Kansas. Look at that. Trump won Kansas by 16 points just two years ago, but, right now, Senate Democrats think they might be able to pick this or other deep red states up to turn over the Senate entirely.

Geoff Bennett:

So Democrats, as you say, need to pick up four seats. What's the path to do that or the Republican path to block it?

Lisa Desjardins:

All right. This is your cheat sheet for election night. Remember this. Again, four seats is the magic number. Let's talk about where each party may have some likely or potential pickups.

First, where can Democrats pick something up? North Carolina. Both parties will tell you that they do think this is likely to go from red to blue this year. Now, how about likely pickups for Republicans, per The Cook Political Report? There are none right now. There are some potential hopes that Republicans have, but right now there are none that are forecast to go their way.

So this leaves the ball game right here, everyone, in the toss-ups. Look at these seats. These seats are the ones likely to determine the fate of the U.S. Senate. Now, how do you figure this out on election night? Again, it does come back to that magic number. Democrats need to pick up four. So it's actually a little bit simple.

Let's imagine North Carolina goes, as it's expected to, for Democrats. That's one. Now it comes down to Michigan. If Democrats keep it, that means they need to pick up three seats among these swing states. If Democrats lose Michigan, they have got to pick up four. And that's what it comes down to.

Geoff Bennett:

And how does that compare to the map two years ago?

Lisa Desjardins:

Right. This is far more seats. In fact, we have 14 competitive seats right now versus nine two years ago, so a lot more.

Geoff Bennett:

Lisa Desjardins, I don't know how you do it, but you always do. Thanks so much.

Lisa Desjardins:

You're welcome.