>> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO DONNYBROOK NEXT UP.

ON BEHALF OF MY COLLEAGUE AND COPILOT BILL McCLELLAN, WE ARE DELIGHTED TO WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM IN PERSON DR. MICHAEL KINCH OF WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY'S INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH.

IT'S SO NICE TO SEE YOU IN PERSON.

>> IT IS NICE TO BE HERE IN PERSON RATHER THAN OVER ZOOM FOR A CHANGE.

>> WELL, DR. ANTHONY FAUCI HAS BASIC DECLARED THAT THE WORST OF THE CORONAVIRUS-19 IS BEHIND US.

SO THAT'S IT, WE JUST MOVE ON?

>> NOT QUITE YET.

THE VIRUS IS ENDEMIC, MEANING IT'S AROUND AND ALWAYS GOING TO BE AROUND WHICH MEANS THAT FRANKLY F YOU'VE BEEN VACCINATED, YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE SPINE AND THE PANDEMIC IS LARGELY -- TO BE FINE AND THE PANDEMIC IS LARGELY OVER.

ASSUMING YOU'RE VACCINATED AND HEALTHY.

IF YOU'RE UNHEALTHY, MEANING YOU DON'T HAVE A FUNCTIONING IMMUNE SYSTEM, EVEN IF YOU'RE VACCINATED, THIS IS POTENTIALLY GOING TO BE A PROBLEM.

AND IF YOU'VE CHOSEN NOT TO BE VACCINATED, WHICH MY MIND IS NOT A SMART DECISION, THEN THIS IS A PROBLEM FOR YOU AND EVENTUALLY YOU'RE GOING TO GET VERY, VERY SICK AND POSSIBLY WORSE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT PROTOCOLS IF ONE DOES GET IT.

IT SEEMS TO BE ENDEMIC, IT'S IN THE COMMUNITY, AND FOR INSTANCE, MY WIFE IS IN A BOOK CLUB AND ONE OF THE WOMEN IN THE BOOK CLUB CALLED A COUPLE WEEKS AGO THE OTHER MEMBERS AND SAID, HEY, I GOT ILL AND I WAS TESTED AND I'M POSITIVE FOR COVID.

SO EVERYBODY ELSE TESTED, AND A TOTAL OF FOUR WOMEN TESTED, INCLUDING MY WIFE, TESTED POSITIVE.

AND I THOUGHT, WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO DO NOW?

LIKE MY WIFE OBVIOUSLY WOULD QUARANTINE, BUT SHOULD I QUARANTINE?

I WAS ON DONNYBROOK LAST WEEK.

I THOUGHT, I CAN STILL GO -- I WASN'T ON DONNYBROOK LAST WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS, AND I THOUGHT, I CAN STILL GO TO THE GROCERY STORE, CAN'T I?

IT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE IF I GOT ILL, WOMEN ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE CARE OF THEM, THEY'RE MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT THAN MEN.

WOULD WE BE ABLE TO GO OUT TO A RESTAURANT?

WHAT DO WE DO?

>> IN THAT KIND OF A SITUATION, WHICH IS GOING TO BECOME COMMON PLACE, BASICALLY YOU HAVE TO PLAY IT SAFE, BOTH FOR YOURSELF AND MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OTHER.

AGAIN, IF YOU'RE YOUNG AND HEALTHY AND YOU'VE BEEN VACCINATED, YOU'RE GOOD TO GO, BUT YOU'VE STILL GOT A PROBLEM BECAUSE IF YOU'RE INFECTED, YOU ARE GIVING OFF VIRAL PARTICLES AND IF YOU RUN INTO SOMEONE WHO ISN'T AS HEALTHY OR HASN'T BEEN VACCINATED, YOU RUN THE RISK OF TRANSMITTING THE DISEASE TO THEM AND THEY COULD END UP HAVING TERRIBLE PROBLEMS.

THE RESPONSIBLE THING TO DO IN THAT KIND OF SITUATION WOULD BE FOR BOTH YOU AND YOUR WIFE TO HUNKER DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS IF BOTH OF YOU HAVE BEEN VACCINATED, YOU PROBABLY ONLY INFECTIOUS FOR A FEW DAYS.

IT NOT LIKE THE TWO WEEKS WE HAD A FEW YEARS AGO WHEN THINGS WERE STILL GETTING STARTED.

>> CAN YOU WALK IN FOREST PARK, FOR INSTANCE?

>> AS LONG AS YOU THINK ABOUT SORT OF -- THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE THE PRETTIEST THING.

THINK ABOUT YOUR SPIT DROPLETS.

MINIMIZE THE LIKE LIE HOOD OF THAT HAPPENING.

IF YOU'RE WALKING IN FOREST PARK, IT'S FINE, AS LONG AS YOU KEEP A RESPECTABLE DISTANCE FROM SOMEONE ELSE.

BUT THIS VIRUS CAN AEROSOLIZE, MEANING IT CAN GO PRETTY FAR, SO YOU WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THAT AND MAKE SURE YOU DON'T PUT SOMEBODY ELSE AT RISK.

THE LAST THING YOU WANT ON YOUR CONSCIENCE IS OH GOSH, I MIGHT HAVE INFECTED SOMEONE, AND LORD FORBID, THEY PASS AWAY.

>> THE CDC THIS WEEK ALSO SAID THAT 50% OF AMERICANS HAVE HAD COVID.

THAT WAS KIND OF JARRING, ESPECIALLY THEY SAID, DURING THE OMICRON VARIANT AND THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT WE WERE SEEING AND THAT 75% OF YOUNG CHILDREN HAVE HAD THE CORONAVIRUS.

AND SO WHEN THEY TALK ABOUT THE -- IS IT MODERNA THAT WANTS TO BE THE VACCINE PROVIDER FOR YOUNG CHILDREN?

>> RIGHT.

>> WHY, IN LAYMAN'S TERMS, DR. KINCH, WHY DO CHILDREN NEED TO BE VACCINATED IF THE LEVEL OF INFECTION HAS ALREADY BEEN SO HIGH?

>> FOR THE REASONS WE TALKED ABOUT.

I'D SAY FOR A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENT REASONS.

ONE IS, AGAIN, IF A CHILD IS VACCINATED, THEY'RE LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ABLE TO BECOME INFECTED AND TRANSMIT THE VIRUS IS GREATLY REDUCED BY VACCINATION.

>> OKAY.

>> SO IF THEY'RE VACCINATED, THEIR LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ABLE TO PASS THE INFECTION ON TO, SAY, AN UNHEALTHY GRANDPARENT, GOES UP EXPONENTIALLY.

FOR THAT REASON ALONE, YOU WANT TO DO IT.

THE OTHER THING IS A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK, OH, I HAD THE VIRUS, I WAS EVEN DIAGNOSED POSITIVE, AND THEREFORE, I'M PROTECTED FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THIS WHOLE FAMILY OF CORONAVIRUSES IS THAT WHEN YOU BECOME INFECTED, YOU HAVE A RESISTANCE THAT OCCURS FROM A NATURAL INFECTION THAT LASTS MAYBE SIX MONTHS TO A YEAR.

SO YOU CAN'T RELY UPON A PAST INFECTION.

VACCINES PROVIDE WHAT ARE CALLED -- WHAT'S CALLED SUPER HUMAN IMMUNITY.

IT'S A VERY POWERFUL RESPONSE, AND THEY PROBABLY LAST AT LEAST A YEAR, WHICH IS MUCH BETTER THAN A NATURAL INFECTION.

BUT THE REAL -- ONE OF THE WORRYING TRENDS IS THAT KIDS ARE NOT BEING VACCINATED.

PARENTS ARE AS HESITANT TO VACCINATE THEIR CHILDREN AS THEY SEEM TO BE THEMSELVES, AND THE FEAR IS THAT HALF OF THE CHILDREN ARE NOT GOING TO GET VACCINATED AND THEY'RE ESSENTIALLY GOING TO BE GERM FACTORIES AND THERE ARE A LOT OF IMPLICATIONS TO THAT.

>> NOW, WE ALSO HAVE GONE THROUGH THESE DIFFERENT VARIANTS.

EACH VARIANT IS A NEW CONCERN, AND PEOPLE HAVE WORRIED ALOUD THAT ONE OF THESE VARIANTS MIGHT BE MORE LETHAL THAN WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE.

SO I'M A LITTLE CONFUSED ABOUT HOW ALL OF A SUDDEN WE CAN SAY THE PANDEMIC IS OVER, IT'S NOW ENDEMIC, MORE LIKE THE FLU, IT'S JUST GOING TO STICK AROUND.

HOW COME WE'RE NOT WORRIED THAT A NEW VARIANT WILL ARISE THAT WILL BE MORE LETHAL AND PERHAPS NOT AS EASILY STOPPED BY THE PRESENT VACCINES?

>> WELL, THERE ARE TWO POINTS, I THINK, THAT ARE TO BE MADE.

ONE IS THAT KEEP IN MIND IN AN AVERAGE YEAR, FLU KILLS 60,000 PEOPLE, SO IT'S ENDEMIC, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT'S NOT DANGEROUS.

IT KILLS AN ENORMOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE.

THE SECOND PART OF THAT IS THAT SO LONG AS THE CORONAVIRUS REMAINS ENDEMIC, THERE WILL BE NEW VARIANCE VARIANTS.

THAT'S AGAIN A GOOD REASON TO GET VACCINATED IS TO DECREASE THE NUMBER OF PARTICLES.

THE MORE VIRUS THAT'S OUT THERE, THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL MUTATE.

IF IT MUTATES, YOU CAN GET A NEW VARIANT AND YOU CAN END UP HAVING ONE OF TWO NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS AND MAYBE BOTH.

ONE IS THAT IT BECOMES MORE DANGEROUS, LIKE WHAT WE SAW WITH DELTA.

THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS YOU END UP ULTIMATELY SELECTING FOR THE VARIANT THAT DOESN'T CARE ABOUT A VACCINE.

IF THAT OCCURS, WE'RE BACK TO WHERE WE WERE IN JANUARY OF 2020.

FOR ALL OF THOSE REASONS, WE NEED TO REMAIN CONCERNED.

IT'S NOT SOMETHING TO CELEBRATE THAT IT'S GONE FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC.

IT JUST MEANS THAT THIS THING IS GOING TO BE AROUND FOR A LONG, LONG TIME.

IT WILL PRESUMABLY BE AROUND FOREVER.

>> WHICH IS WHY WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CHINA IS -- SEEMS TO BE A CONCERN BECAUSE YOU HAVE -- AND WALK OUR VIEWERS THROUGH IT.

BECAUSE YOU HAVE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN BEIJING AND SHANGHAI, THEY ARE BEING QUARANTINED, THEY ARE BEING TESTED, AND SO MUCH OF WHAT I'M READING IS BECAUSE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS AND SUPPLY CHAINS, AND SO THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT IS REALLY TRYING TO GET AHEAD OF THIS, AND YET, YOU WONDER, DR. KINCH, HOW MUCH OF THIS IS -- IT'S SO HARD TO TELL ANYMORE.

HOW MUCH OF THIS IS ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL, AND HOW MUCH OF THIS IS SOUND HEALTH POLICY?

>> WELL, THE CHINESE TOOK A VERY DIFFERENT APPROACH THAN WE DID IN THE WEST.

AND THEY SPECIFICALLY WENT AFTER WHAT'S CALLED A ZERO COVID POLICY, AND THAT MEANS THAT NO ONE IS TO GET INFECTED, WE'RE GOING TO NIP IT IN THE BUD EACH TIME THAT WE SEE SOMEONE BECOME INFECTED.

FRANKLY, FOR A YEAR AND A HALF, TWO YEARS, IT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS A PRETTY GOOD POLICY.

IT'S VERY DRACONIAN.

THEY LOCKED PEOPLE DOWN AT MACHINE GUN POINT, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T LEAVE THE HOUSE.

THE PROBLEM WITH IT, WHEN YOU LOOK FURTHER, IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CHINESE HAVE OPTED NOT TO GET ANY OF THE WESTERN VACCINES.

THEY PRODUCED THEIR OWN AND THE VACCINE THAT THEY HAVE FRANKLY IS NOT VERY GOOD.

AND THEY'VE DONE A VERY POOR JOB OF VACCINATING THEIR PUBLIC.

SO THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THEY HAVE A PUBLIC THAT IS AS VULNERABLE TO COVID TODAY AS THE WORLD WAS TWO AND A HALF YEARS AGO.

>> DOES THAT INCREASE OUR RISK?

I MEAN, BECAUSE IT -- THAT WAS GROUND ZERO, WE'RE NOT SURE WHERE YET, A LOT OF DEBATE THERE, BUT DOES IT MEAN WE'RE LOOKING AT SOMETHING SIMILAR?

>> IF IT GETS OUT OF CONTROL IN CHINA, THERE'S A RISK WITH THAT MANY PEOPLE BECOMING HIGHLY INFECTED, YOU'LL GET A NEW VARIANT THAT ARISES THAT IS, AGAIN, EITHER MORE LETHAL OR CARES LESS ABOUT THE VACCINE.

HOWEVER, WITH THE WAY THAT THEY BASICALLY HAVE THESE DRACONIAN MEASURES, I WOULD SAY THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT IS MUCH REDUCED.

I THINK THE LESSON TO BE LEARNED IS WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW WITH THESE INCREDIBLE SPIKES AND DEATHS IN CHINA IS IF YOU DON'T GET VACCINATED OR IF YOU GET VACCINATED WITH AN INADEQUATE VACCINE, YOU'RE GOING TO EXPERIENCE MASSIVE DEATH IN YOUR POPULATION.

SO THE CHINESE ARE VERY LIKELY TO CATCH UP WITH THE WEST DUE TO, FRANKLY, THEIR FAILURE TO PROPERLY VACCINATE.

>> YOU KNOW, NOW THAT IT'S ENDEMIC, THE PANDEMIC IS OVER, PEOPLE ARE TRAVELING MORE AND PEOPLE LIKE ME WANT TO TAKE ROAD TRIPS.

MORE AMBITIOUS PEOPLE WANT TO DO INTERNATIONAL TRAVELING, AND PEOPLE ARE -- THAT I KNOW ARE A LITTLE FRIGHTENED OF THAT.

LIKE, YOU KNOW, GEE, SHOULD THEY GO TO ITALY, BUT MAYBE THEY'LL GET STUCK IN ITALY OR CRUISE SHIPS.

SHOULD PEOPLE FEEL SAFE TO TRAVEL INTERNATIONALLY OR GO ON CRUISE SHIPS RIGHT NOW?

>> WELL, I DON'T WANT TO GIVE TRAVEL ADVICE, BUT I WOULD SAY THAT ONE OF THE -- IF THIS IS AN UPSIDE TO AN ENDEMIC VIRUS IS THAT IT'S PRETTY BAD EVERYWHERE, AND SO I THINK THAT IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THESE REGIONAL SHUTDOWNS.

IT MAY HAPPEN EVERY NOW AND THEN.

FOR EXAMPLE, AGAIN, IN CHINA WITH THE ZERO COVID POLICY, THAT'S A POLITICAL REASON WHY THEY SHUT THINGS DOWN.

FROM A HEALTH STANDPOINT, UNLESS THERE IS A NEW VARIANT THAT ARISES THAT EITHER IGNORES THE VACCINE OR THAT IS HIGHLY LETHAL, I RATHER DOUBT PERSONALLY THAT IT WILL END UP CAUSING THE SORTS OF SHUTDOWNS THAT WE SAW IN EARLY 2020.

>> WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING, IF WE HAVEN'T ALREADY PASSED, THE OWO ONE MILLIONTH FATALITY MARK IN THIS COUNTRY, AND WHEN THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION CRITICIZES THE WEST FOR BASICALLY BEING TOO RELAXED TOO QUICKLY, WILL WE EVER, EVER GET TO A POINT WHERE -- PRE-PANDEMIC, WHERE WE THOUGHT OF HEALTH POLICY WITHOUT THE POLITICAL PRISM?

IT SEEMS NOW THAT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE THE TWO.

>> IT'S UNFORTUNATE, BUT POLITICS AND SCIENCE HAVE BEEN CONFLATED WITH ONE ANOTHER AND THEY SHOULD NOT.

THEY ARE COMPLETELY SEPARATE.

WILL THERE BE SUSPICION BY CERTAIN POLITICAL VIEWS OR PEOPLE THAT HOLD CERTAIN POLITICAL VIEWS ABOUT SCIENCE?

YES, I FEAR THAT -- WELL, THAT DANGER WAS ALREADY HERE.

IT'S BEEN EXACERBATED BY THE PANDEMIC AND THE POLITICIZATION OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE SCIENCE.

THAT'S A HUGE PROBLEM.

IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE GENERATIONS TO OVERCOME IT.

BUT I THINK THERE ARE BIGGER CONCERNS.

YOU KNOW, YOU MENTIONED WE'RE AT A MILLION PEOPLE AND WE'RE PROBABLY WELL IN EXCESS OF A MILLION.

IF YOU LOOK AT -- WE DON'T FULLY KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THIS.

THERE'S WHAT'S CALLED EXCESS DEATHS, AND IN THE U.S. ALONE, WE'VE PASSED THAT.

WE PASSED THE MILLION MARK PROBABLY A FEW MONTHS AGO, BUT PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE.

THE SECOND WORLD WAR, 400,000 AMERICANS WERE KILLED.

THIS IS TWO AND A HALF TIMES THAT.

THERE ARE -- JUST EVERY STATISTIC THAT YOU LOOK AT, WE HAVE EXCEEDED DRAMATICALLY AND WE -- WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT IN 2020 WE WOULD HAVE ACCEPTED A MILLION DEATHS, A MILLION AMERICAN DEATHS AND SAID, OH, THAT'S NOT A BIG DEAL.

AND THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE SAYING THIS IS NOT A BIG DEAL.

THIS IS A MILLION PEOPLE.

THAT'S A HUGE NUMBER, AND AGAIN, WE'VE GOT TO SEPARATE THE POLITICS AND SAY WHEN THIS HAPPENS AGAIN -- AND UNFORTUNATELY, PANDEMICS ARE A NATURAL PHENOMENA, THEY OCCUR EVERY TWO OR THREE DECADES ON AVERAGE, WE HAVE TO SEPARATE THAT OUT AND LEARN SOME LESSONS FROM THIS.

>> DOCTOR, THE SPANISH FLU BACK IN 1918, 1919, IT SEEMED LIKE IT KILLED SO MANY YOUNG PEOPLE AND WAS THEREFORE MORE NOTICEABLE.

I MEAN, FROM WHAT I'VE READ, EVERYBODY KNEW PEOPLE WHO WERE DYING.

AND THIS FLU -- OR COVID, RATHER, HAS MAINLY TARGETED OLDER PEOPLE AND THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE NOW WHO DON'T KNOW ANYBODY WHO'S DIED FROM IT.

I MEAN, HOW COME THAT ONE IN 1919 WAS STRIKING YOUNG PEOPLE AND THIS ONE GOING AFTER MOSTLY OLDER PEOPLE?

>> SO I THINK THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ISSUES WITH THAT.

ONE IS THAT IF YOU LOOK -- IF YOU ASK THE QUESTION, DO YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO'S DIED OF COVID, I WOULD BE WILLING TO BET THAT ALMOST EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN KNOWSES MULTIPLE PEOPLE.

IT HASN'T BEEN AS IN THE FACE AS PERHAPS IT WAS IN SPANISH FLU.

FRANKLY, WE RESPONDED TO SPANISH FLU IN A MUCH STRONGER WAY BACK 100 YEARS AGO THAN WE DID IN THIS CENTURY.

THE OTHER PART OF IT IS, THE QUESTION OF WHY DO YOUNG PEOPLE -- WHY WERE THEY BEING KILLED, THAT'S SORT OF A WEIRD PHENOMENA WITH PANDEMIC INFLUENZA.

INFLUENZA BEING ONE TYPE OF VIRUS DIFFERENT THAN A CORONAVIRUS.

THERE IS WHAT THEY CALL A "W" RESPONSE WHERE THE VERY YOUNG ARE KILLED, THE MIDDLE AGE, THE 20, 30-SOMETHINGS AND THEN THE 60-PLUS.

SO THE W. WITH COVID, IT'S BEEN KIND OF A "V," THE YOUNG AND THE OLD.

BUT THAT'S ONLY TRUE IN FRANKLY CAUCASIAN COMMUNITIES.

IF YOU LOOK IN MINORITIES, WE'RE LOOKING DEATH ACROSS THE BOARD AGE WISE.

WE'RE STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF IT AND WE STILL DON'T HAVE A FULL APPRECIATION FOR THE NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT OCCURRED AND I THINK THAT HISTORIANS ARE GOING TO LOOK BACK AT THIS AND SPANISH FLU AND COVID MIGHT ACTUALLY END UP BEING RANKED WORSE.

>> WHEN YOU SAY THE YOUNG AND THE OLD, I DON'T KNOW ANYBODY YOUNG WHO DIED.

WERE THERE A LOT OF VERY YOUNG PEOPLE WHO DIED OF COVID?

>> I'M SORRY, MISSTATEMENT ON MY PART.

THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THIS VIRUS, MOST VIRUSES KILL THE VERY YOUNG AND THE VERY OLD.

SO THE VERY YOUNG BECAUSE THEY'RE NAIVE, IMMUNE NAIVE.

THIS IS A VERY WEIRD VIRUS BECAUSE IT SEEMS TO NOT BE HAVING -- BE AS LETHAL FOR THE VERY YOUNG, BUT IT'S LETHAL FOR THE OLD, AND AGAIN, IT'S ALSO LETHAL FOR NON-CAUCASIAN MINORITIES.

>> AND TO THAT POINT, I KNOW THAT LOS ANGELES, IT HAS BEEN A -- IT IS OBVIOUSLY A FULL-BLOWN CRISIS, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY AND THERE WAS AN INTERVIEW BETWEEN ONE OF THE HEALTH OFFICIALS OUT THERE WHERE THEY SAID THAT JUST IN EVERY WAY, THESE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN FAILED BY THE SYSTEM BECAUSE THEY'RE AFRAID, YOU KNOW, OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THEIR IMMIGRATION STATUS.

SO WE WERE LOSING SO MANY PEOPLE WHO SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN LOST.

THIS IS GOING TO HAVE -- THIS IS GOING TO REVERBERATE, ISN'T IT, AND SEND OUT SHOCK WAVES FOR, AS YOU SAID, GENERATIONS.

>> WELL, I BELIEVE SO, AND HOPEFULLY WE LEARN SOME THINGS.

FOR EXAMPLE, WE'VE HEARD THE TERM "HEALTHCARE DISPARITIES," BUT THIS HAS REALLY BEEN THE DEFINITION.

THAT THOSE WHO HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD MEDICINE, GOOD DOCTORS, THIS HAS IMPACTED THEM, BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD DOCTORS AND MEDICINE.

THOSE WHO ARE UNINSURED.

AND SO INDEPENDENT OF ANY OF THE POLITICS AROUND THAT, IT MAKES SENSE FOR THE HEALTH OF THE NATION IN EVERY SENSE, BOTH THE POLITICAL SENSE, THE ECONOMIC SENSE, AND THE LITERAL SENSE, TO MAKE SURE THAT WE GET RID OF THESE DISPARITIES BECAUSE, AGAIN, WE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE ANOTHER MILLION PEOPLE IN THE NEXT PANDEMIC.

IF IT'S SOMETHING LIKE INFLUENZA WHERE YOU DO SEE THAT "W," THERE YOU HAVE SITUATIONS WHERE PANDEMIC INFLUENZA CAN TAKE OUT LARGE GROUPS OF PEOPLE, COMPLETELY DISRUPTIVE TO AN ECONOMY, AND WITHOUT SOUNDING LIKE CHICKEN LITTLE THAT THE SKY IS FALLING, PARDON THE FUN, THERE IS AN AVIAN FLU OUT THERE THAT WE'RE VERY NERVOUS ABOUT AND YOU MAY HAVE HEARD ABOUT BOTH AT THE PERSONAL LEVEL AND AT THE INDUSTRIAL LEVEL.

CHICKENS AND OTHER THINGS ARE BEING CULLED TO TRY TO STOP THAT AVIAN FLU.

LAST THING IN THE WORLD WE NEED IS TO START A NEW INFLUENZA PANDEMIC WHICH, AGAIN, ON AVERAGE COMES EVERY FEW DECADES, AND WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD A GOOD ONE OR A BIG ONE SINCE ABOUT 1968.

>> DO YOU HAVE A SENSE, DOCTOR, THAT WE REALLY HAVE LEARNED MUCH OR -- I MEAN, IT JUST SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE SO SET IN THEIR WAYS, PUTTING POLITICS ASIDE, THAT IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO DO.

IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE -- WE'RE STILL HAVING PEOPLE FIGHTING OVER MASKS AND VACCINATIONS.

IT DOESN'T, FROM WHERE I SIT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE PEOPLE, THAT WE'VE LEARNED ANYTHING.

MAYBE PHYSICIAN S HAVE, BUT I DON'T THINK WE HAVE.

>> I THINK SCIENTIFICALLY, WE'VE LEARNED A LOT.

THE PROBLEM IS, I WOULD ARGUE WE'RE PROBABLY IN A WORSE SITUATION TODAY THAN WE WERE IN 2020.

AND THAT IS THAT WE HAVE 30, 40, 50% OF THE AMERICAN POPULATION THAT ISN'T GOING TO BELIEVE OBJECTIVE FACTS, OBJECTIVE DATA ON THE SCIENCE.

FORGET POLITICS, JUST ON THE SCIENCE.

THEY'RE GOING TO SAY, NO, THERE'S SOMETHING BEHIND THAT.

AND WE'VE LOST A LOT OF PEOPLE.

NOW, I WROTE A BOOK THAT CAME OUT IN 2017 TALKING ABOUT HOW THIS ISN'T A NEW PHENOMENA.

WE'VE SEEN THIS HESITANCY, WHETHER IT'S TO VACCINES OR OTHER SCIENTIFIC PHENOMENA IN THE PAST, BUT TODAY IT'S FAR WORSE.

WHEN YOU LOOK BACK ON THE 1918-1919 FLU, BASICALLY THERE WAS A RECOGNITION THAT MEDICINE AND SCIENCE SAVED THE WORLD AND THERE WAS AN EMBRACE OF IT IN THE YEARS AFTERWARDS.

I DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THIS CASE.

IF ANYTHING, THERE'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE A GREATER CONCERN AND SKEPTICISM ABOUT SCIENCE AFTER THIS THAN BEFORE WHEN WE WENT INTO IT, AND IT WAS ALREADY PRETTY BAD BEFORE.

SO IF WE'RE SMART AND WE ACTUALLY START TO TRUST FACTS AGAIN, I THINK WE'LL BE -- WE'VE GOT MANY MORE FACTS AND IT CAN BE MUCH BETTER, BUT IF WE CONTINUE THIS POLITICIZATION OF SCIENCE, I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE FAR MORE DANGEROUS THE NEXT TIME THIS OCCURS.

>> AND THEN ON A RELATED NOTE, WE SEE THESE STATISTICS OF -- I WON'T EVEN TRY IT AGAIN -- BUT ABOUT DIABETES.

WE SEE AN INCREASE IN MEASLES.

SO THIS HAS TO -- I MEAN, IF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY ISN'T PIVOTING ENOUGH ALREADY -- >> RIGHT.

>> -- YOU'RE SEEING THINGS POPPING UP, AREN'T YOU?

>> WELL, WE HAVE A FEW TRENDS THAT I THINK TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

ONE IS, YOU'RE RIGHT, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SOURCES SAYING THAT MEASLES ARE STARTING TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF AND YOU MAY ASK WHY WOULD MEASLES BE INCREASING?

IT'S BECAUSE THAT ANTI-VACCINE SKEPTICISM HAS ONCE AGAIN TAKEN OVER THE MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA VACCINE.

SO WE'RE SEEING -- WE HAD ALREADY BEEN SEEING AN INCREASE IN MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA FROM PARENTS WHO DIDN'T HAVE THEIR CHILDREN VACCINATED BECAUSE THERE WAS ESSENTIALLY A FAKE RESULT -- LITERALLY FAKED DATA SHOWING THAT THE VACCINE HAD CAUSED AUTISM.

THAT WAS COMPLETELY PROVEN TO BE BOGUS, BUT A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE BOUGHT INTO IT AND THAT SIGNAL HAS BEEN INCREASING AND AS A CONSEQUENCE, WE'RE NOW SEEING THESE PROBLEMS.

ANOTHER LONG-TERM THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS LONG COVID.

PEOPLE THAT HAD COVID, THAT THIS IS GOING TO STICK AROUND AND WHETHER THEY'RE BEING REINFECTED OR WHETHER THE INFECTION IS PERSISTING, WE REALLY DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S HAPPENING, BUT WE DO KNOW THERE ARE BIG PROBLEMS.

>> SPEAKING OF MEASLES AND RUBELLA, THERE'S A HOUSE BILL 2009 IN THE MISSOURI LEGISLATURE, 42 COSPONSORS, I THINK, GIVES PARENTS THE RIGHT TO OPT OUT OF VACCINATIONS FOR SCHOOLS IF THEY HAVE A STRONG RELIGIOUS OR PHILOSOPHICAL BELIEF AGAINST THAT.

I MEAN, HOW DO YOU FIGHT STUFF LIKE THIS?

>> WELL, WE CAN TELL YOU WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES ARE BECAUSE WE HAVE THE DATA TO SHOW IT.

THIS PHENOMENA OF SAYING IF YOU HAVE -- YOU CAN GET A RELIGIOUS OR OTHERWISE EXEMPTION FOR THE MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA, THAT STARTED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WE'VE SEEN CASES OF MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA KILLING CHILDREN WORSE AND WORSE EVERY YEAR.

IT HAS SPREAD FROM THERE, AND NOW AGAIN, IT'S POLITICIZED TO BE NO ONE CAN TELL ME WHAT TO DO WITH MY BODY.

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DANGER WHATSOEVER OF THE MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA TO THE CHILD BEING VACCINATED.

AND YET, THE FAILURE TO VACCINATE CAN RESULT IN THEM DYING, WHETHER THEY DIE AS A CHILD OR DIE AS AN ADULT.

ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, THOSE -- THE SAD THING ABOUT CHILDHOOD DISEASES IS THEY TEND TO BE FAR WORSE WHEN YOU'RE OLDER.

SO WE ARE GOING TO SEE HUGE REPERCUSSIONS OF THIS.

WHY WE'VE REACHED A POINT WHEREE SUDDENLY SAY WE'RE SMARTER THAN -- WHERE WE'RE SMARTER THAN THE DOCTORS WHO JUST WANT TO MAKE MONEY AND NOTHING ELSE, WHY WE REACH THAT POINT WHERE LEGISLATORS SAY YOU DON'T NEED TO GET VACCINATED ANYMORE, THEY'RE NOT HOLDING UP THEIR RESPONSIBILITY TO THE PUBLIC, TO THEIR VOTERS.

>> WOULD THAT BE A DANGER TO -- MY GRANDCHILDREN GOT VACCINATED, IF THEY WERE IN A CLASS WITH CHILDREN WHO DIDN'T GET VACCINATED, WOULD MY GRANDCHILDREN BE AT ANY GREATER DANGER?

OR IS THE ONLY DANGER -- >> YOU MEAN AGAINST MEASLES, MUMPS -- >> YEAH, YEAH.

>> IF THEY'VE BEEN VACCINATED, THEY'RE PROTECTED.

THE PROBLEM IS TWO-FOLD, JUST LIKE IT IS WITH COVID.

THOSE WHO HAVEN'T BEEN VACCINATED ARE GOING TO BE AT RISK, AND THOSE WHO HAVE SUPPRESSED IMMUNE SYSTEMS.

AGAIN, UNDERGONE CANCER TREAENT, WHETHER THEY'RE YOUNG OR OLD, IF THEIR IMMUNE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED, THEY'RE NOW AT RISK.

YOU'RE INTRODUCING MEASLES, MUMPS AND RUBELLA AS THREE ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR FOLKS WHO ARE ALREADY HIGHLY VULNERABLE BECAUSE THEY HAVE A DECREASED IMMUNE FUNCTION.

>> IF YOU COULD GO BACK TO ONE MOMENT IN THIS AND TAKE IT IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION, WHICH MOMENT WOULD THAT HAVE BEEN?

>> IT'S ACTUALLY KIND OF EASY.

I WOULD HAVE TAKEN IT BACK TO PROBABLY MARCH, APRIL OF 2020 WHEN THE FIRST QUESTIONS ABOUT MASKS WERE COMING UP, AND I WOULD HAVE COME OUT AND SAID, LOOK, MASKS DON'T NECESSARILY PROTECT YOU FROM THE VIRUS, BUT THEY PROTECT THOSE AROUND YOU.

SO COMMON SENSE SAYS IF YOU FEEL THE SPITTLE ON THE INSIDE OF THE MASK, THAT'S ALL THESE AEROSOLS COLLECTING AND THAT COULD HAVE BEEN VIRUS YOU WERE TRANSMITTING OUT.

INSTEAD, IN MY MIND, THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY SENT A CONFUSING MESSAGE ON MASKS AND THAT COMPROMISED EVERYTHING ELSE THAT CAME OUT OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY BEFORE -- OR SINCE AND UP TILL AND INCLUDING NOW.

>> ASIDE FROM COVID, A AS A PERSON WHO'S IN PUBLIC HEALTH, WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT RIGHT NOW?

IS THERE ANY GOOD NEWS?

>> THE GOOD NEWS IS WE HAVE AN AMAZINGLY SAFE VACCINE AND THAT VACCINE HAS HELD UP EVEN DESPITE BEING ATTACKED BY MANY DIFFERENT VARIANTS AND IF YOU'RE FULLY VACCINATED AND IMMUNE HEALTHY, YOU BASICALLY DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THIS PANDEMIC.

THAT'S THE BEST NEWS OF IT ALL IS THAT WE'VE SAVED AN ENORMOUS NUMBER OF LIVES THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN POTENTIALLY LOST.

>> BUT I MEAN, OUTSIDE OF COVID, DOCTOR, WHAT I WAS TRYING TO SAY.

IF THERE WAS NO COVID -- >> WE HAVE ABOUT 15 SECONDS.

>> I'M SORRY.

>> I THINK THE TECHNOLOGIES AND THE LEARNINGS FROM COVID CAN BE APPLIED BOTH TO INFECTIOUS DISEASES, BUT THEN ALSO CANCER AND OTHER AREAS.

I THINK THAT'S A HUGE POSITIVE FOR THE FUTURE.

>> DR. KINCH, DR. MICHAEL KINCH, WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY'S INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH, WE THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE AND BEING SO GENEROUS WITH YOUR TIME AND EXPERTISE.

ON BEHALF OF OUR ENTIRE CREW, OUR DIRECTOR, MY COLLEAGUE BILL McCLELLAN, WE THANK YOU ALL FOR WATCHING NINE PBS.

WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

>> Announcer: DONNYBROOK IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE SUPPORT OF THE BETSY AND THOMAS PATTERSON FOUNDATION AND THE MEMBERS OF NINE PBS.