>> CATHY: IT'S FEBRUARY IN MINNESOTA, SO OF COURSE WE'VE HAD RECORD-SETTING HIGH TEMPS, RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HIGH WINDS AND ROAD-CLOSING BLIZZARDS ACROSS THE STATE.

AND THAT WAS JUST THIS WEEK.

THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER SO WE'VE INVITED BACK U OF M PROFESSOR EMERITUS MARK SEELEY.

HE'S ALSO WITH THE MINNESOTA CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM TO JOIN US AS THE SEASONS ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE.

VALENTINE'S DAY WAS NOT EXACTLY SWEET.

WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED THERE WITH RAIN, HISTORIC RAIN?

>> HISTORIC.

IN OUR CLIMATE NETWORK IN THE STATE, CATHY, OVER 100 RECORDS WERE SET ON VALENTINE'S DAY FOR RAIN.

IT WAS ARGUABLY THE WETTEST VALENTINE'S DAY WE'VE EVER HAD.

>> Eric: WHAT CAUSED IT?

>> WELL, IT WAS SET UP BY, ERIC, THE PRECEDING DAYS.

REMEMBER HOW WE SAW HOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS WENT UP TO 47°?

>> Eric: YEAH, RIGHT.

>> TOWER, ONE OF THE COLDEST PLACES IN THE STATE, WENT UP TO 49.

SO WE HAD THIS INFLUX OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR FOR A FEW DAYS.

BROUGHT IN A WARMER AIR MASS.

BUT ALSO MORE MOISTURE.

>> Eric: I SEE.

>> AND, SO, THERE WAS A LOT OF MOISTURE THERE FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DEPOSIT OVER THE STATE.

AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.

AND IT WAS A BIT OF A SURPRISE.

IT'S RARE.

HISTORICALLY, CATHY, YOU KNOW THIS FROM OUR TALKS ON MORNING EDITION TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKE THAT IN THE WINTERTIME.

BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, AND IEWERS ARE PROBABLY LEARNING THIS AS A FACT OF LIFE, MORE AND MORE WE'RE SEEING SOME RAINFALL EVENTS DURING OUR CORE WINTER MONTHS.

>> Cathy: WHICH IS JUST NOT RIGHT.

>> RIGHT.

>> Cathy: AND THE ICE THAT'S LEFT BEHIND IS HORRIBLE.

>> IT IS.

IT MAKES IT TREACHEROUS FOR PEDESTRIANS AND TRAFFIC.

AND IT'S JUST BEEN -- IT'S JUST BEEN A NIGHTMARE THIS WINTER.

>> Eric: WHAT DOES THE SNOW AMOUNT HAVE TO DO, IF ANYTHING, WITH THE WINTER TEMPERATURES?

DOES IT MAKE IT COOLER BECAUSE THERE'S SNOW ON THE GROUND?

>> OH, YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.

ALMOST ALL OF OUR RECORD LOWS HISTORICALLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF SNOW COVER.

WITHOUT IT WE ALL KNOW WE'VE SEEN 60° IN FEBRUARY.

WE'VE EVEN SEEN 70°.

BUT ALL OF THOSE OCCURRENCES IN OUR PAST HAVE BEEN WITHOUT SNOW COVER.

>> Eric: I SEE.

>> SO IT'S A HUGE FACTOR IN HOW THE TEMPERATURE BEHAVES.

>> Cathy: OKAY, SO IT RAINED TO BEAT THE BAND THERE ON VALENTINE'S DAY.

BUT I'M WONDERING, WHEN IT COMES TO THE DROUGHT, IS IT BETTER TO GET SNOW OR RAIN?

YOU KNOW WHAT I'M SAYING?

BECAUSE THE FROST LEVEL ISN'T AS DEEP AS IT WAS.

>> RIGHT.

>> Cathy: SO I'M JUST KIND OF WONDERING.

>> WELL, T'S ALL CIRCUMSTANTIAL I THINK I'VE HEARD FROM OTHER OBSERVERS AS WELL AS MY FRIENDS AT THE STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE THAT THE RAIN WE DID GET VALENTINE'S DAY IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE WENT INTO THE SOIL BECAUSE THE SOIL FROST DEPTHS HAVE BEEN SO SHALLOW THIS WINTER WITH ALL THAT ONSET OF EARLY WINTER SNOW.

>> Eric: YEAH.

>> TO SORT OF INSULATE THE SOIL AND NOT ALLOW THE FROST TO PENETRATE TOO DEEP.

ELSEWHERE THERE'S SOME PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE THE FROST IS DOWN AROUND 20 OR 30 INCHES.

SO THAT'S A FACTOR THERE.

OVERALL, MOISTURE'S MOISTURE, CATHY.

I THINK THE BUILDUP OF WINTER MOISTURE IS A POSITIVE FROM THE STANDPOINT OF ALLEVIATING DROUGHT.

BUT IT'S GOING TO PLAY OUT, IT'S HOW IT'S GOING TO PLAY OUT THAT'S REALLY GOING TO BE IMPORTANT.

ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A GRADUAL THAT YOU?

ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A RAPID THAW?

ARE WE GOING TO SUDDENLY TURN AND HAVE A WET SPRING ON TO HAVE I ASNOWY WINTER?

THEN, OF COURSE, WE MIGHT MAGNIFY THE SPRING SNOW MELT FLOOD THREAT.

>> Eric: WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK LOOK LIKE NOW ON FLOODING?

>> IT'S ALMOST, I'D SAY, ERIC, IT'S MODERATE FOR MOST OF OUR MAJOR WATERSHEDS.

NOTHING TO GET REAL UPSET ABOUT.

I THINK THERE'S A COUPLE OF SPOTS ALONG THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH WHERE THERE'S SOME CHANCE FOR A HIGH, A MAJOR FLOOD.

SMALL CHANCE, THOUGH, AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

REALLY, WE'VE GOT SO MUCH OF WINTER LEFT ND SO MUCH OF EARLY SPRING LEFT THAT COULD DICTATE HOW THIS PATTERN GOES THAT THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT YET.

>> Cathy: I SAW THAT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WAS OUT.

>> YES.

>> Cathy: WITH ITS CRYSTAL BALL OUTLOOK.

WHICH I KNOW YOU'RE NEVER TOO IMPRESSED WITH.

BUT WHAT DID YOU THINK OF IT?

>> WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT, CATHY, I'VE NEVER BEEN A FAN OF IT.

AND I PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MOST CRITICAL PEOPLE OF IT IN THE STATE OF MINNESOTA FOR MY 45 YEARS OR WHATEVER IT IS.

BUT A CONVERGENCE OF THE MODELS, SO NOT JUST ONE MODEL, BUT A CONVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT BY THE END F MAY, WE MIGHT HAVE ALLEVIATED THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE STATE.

>> Eric: WOW.

>> AND THAT'S GOOD.

I MEAN, OUR GARDENERS AND OUR FARMERS AND STUFF SHOULD BE LOOKING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY NOW AT WHAT 2023 MIGHT BRING.

>> Eric: LET'S END IT RIGHT THERE ON A HIGH POS